A Highpothetical Situation

Scott Hardie | June 11, 2015
On his final day in office, Barack Obama issues a pardon to every felon convicted under federal law of possessing or distributing marijuana. Other crimes related to marijuana are not forgiven, such as someone who drove under the influence.

1) What would happen next?

2) What are the odds of such an event coming true?

3) Would you like to see this happen?

Scott Hardie | July 9, 2015
1) Other than the press and talking heads having a field day with the news -- which wouldn't even last a second day with the inauguration to cover -- very little would happen. If I understand the law correctly, there would be no mechanism to undo what Obama did, so other politicians could talk about it but change nothing. Lives would go on quietly all over America. Many lives would be improved by families reuniting and criminal records being cleared up, and a few lives would be worsened, but the country would just plain move on.

2) Not impossible, but very slim. Obama can occasionally be bold, but usually he favors sensible middle-ground compromises on big issues. Plus, I suspect that he cannot issue that kind of blanket pardon; he'd have to pardon the many thousands of prisoners individually by name, which becomes such a huge undertaking with so much room for error that the chances of it happening become even more remote.

3) Sure!

Samir Mehta | July 9, 2015
[hidden by request]

Samir Mehta | July 14, 2015
[hidden by request]

Scott Hardie | July 17, 2015
Perhaps I underestimate Obama's boldness. I'm pleased by everything he's done this week to highlight prison reform, and I hope that it eventually leads to changes in harsh sentencing for minor drug offenses.

If Obama does do anything radical in his last few days in office, which I still consider highly unlikely, I would have to guess that it would be closing Guantanamo Bay and releasing the remaining prisoners. Finally ending the extra-Constitutional holding of those prisoners was a major pillar of his first campaign, and it was the first executive order that he signed upon taking office, but Republican opposition has stymied his attempts to try the inmates on American soil ever since, leaving him with no viable choice for all of these years but to maintain the status quo. I suspect that Obama has never given up on wanting to see that base shut down, especially now that we're getting cozy with Cuba (they've wanted it gone for a long time), and he must be aware that once another president takes over, many more years could pass without action. Thus, I find it plausible that he would seize the opportunity in his last 48-72 hours to order that all prisoners be released to their point of origin and the base be permanently shuttered and/or given to Cuba.

Mike Eberhart | July 23, 2015
Point of clarification on Guantanamo Bay. He wants to close the prison only. There is more to that base than just a prison. The base was there way longer than the prison ever was. If they close the prison, fine, but the base will not be closed.

Scott Hardie | August 2, 2015
Good point. My mistake.