Scott Hardie | March 4, 2022
You live way out in the country. You've been out here for years and you know all of your neighbors. There's a few hotheads but mostly they're alright people, just minding their own business.

Most folks gather at the roadhouse every Saturday night. It's just a brick dive bar on the side of the highway. There's nowhere else to go around here.

You're at the bar tonight. It's drafty in here but pretty busy! There's lots of chatter filling the air. A few folks are dancing, others shooting pool, many just drinking and talking. People are too tired of this long winter to laugh much.

There's a quiet at the front. You glance over. Todd just walked in, red in the face. Damn it.

Todd is an asshole. He spends all day shooting off his guns, pumping iron in the driveway while blasting 80s rock bands, and tearing up his land with his modded ATVs. His neighbors hate him; people think he salted some flowerbeds and poisoned some strays. Sometimes he starts bragging about his glory days, winning wrestling tournaments in college and dating Christine, but mostly he's just mad all the time. You tried once to be friends but he's just too much of a jerk.

He's walking towards the middle of bar and yelling, and people are backing out of his way. You don't quite realize what he's doing until he's got his left hand on her head. It's Christine.

Poor Christine. Tall blonde, stares right through you sometimes while she smokes alone at the bar, adores her funny little pet dog in his fancy suit-and-tie collar. She's nice enough but most people don't get to know her well. She tried to join a bowling league a couple of towns over but Todd harassed them until they wouldn't take her. She broke up with Todd years ago, but he keeps telling everyone she's still his. He's shown up at her house a few times to give her a black eye or worse. Last time he broke her arm. He says he can do whatever he wants to her. He's a real piece of work.

He's pulling on her hair at the scalp, making a fist and starting to drag her backwards. She's screaming. The whole place is silent.

People are squirming. A few get out of their seats to confront him. Todd's not stopping. He's raving about how she belongs to him. There's rage in his eyes and his shirt has a ring of sweat around the collar. He's lost it.

People around you are muttering about how they're done with Todd. They won't have anything to do with him after this. It doesn't help Christine. You push forward to the front, eyes locked on Todd in case you can help.

He senses people staring at him, considering making a move. Someone yells that he better let go of her. He pauses to size up their hesitation and laughs. He knows nobody can summon any cops this far out in the middle of nowhere. He knows nobody wants to get into a fistfight with him. But you also know that if gets her out that door tonight, she's dead. Nobody will ever see her again.

Still inching Christine towards the door, Todd pulls a 9mm handgun out of his waistband with his right hand and points it around at a few people. You can see in his eyes that he might just use it tonight. Christine is sobbing and gasping for air. People are calling out a few reassurances to her to stay strong.

A half-dozen people have taken out handguns too. Damn, that's all? You take out yours, the one you got back when that random guy vandalized your fence. You can feel the tension in the air; it feels like someone's going to die and this place isn't going to be the same again.

Todd presses the tip of his gun against Christine's head and starts yelling that if he can't have her, no one can. He says he'll blow her head open and you're pretty sure he will. You know that if anyone charges at him or takes a shot at him, he could kill any number of people here.

What do you do? Because whatever you'd do in that moment, that should inform your opinion about Ukraine right now.

Steve West | March 4, 2022
In that situation, I would have acted before he presented himself with a handgun. Probably smacked him over the head with a bottle, there probably would have been several handy. But similar to Russia, the time for that has passed. Those that could have grabbed a bottle, didn't, including me in whatever way I could have.
Very clever analogy, well written (poisoned strays, breaking Christine's arm, pumping iron in the driveway, etc.). It all works. Thanks, but ...

Scott Hardie | March 8, 2022
I wrote this in part because I kept seeing pieces online speculating about Putin's mindset -- most assume rational intentions (he's pursuing nationalism to shore up his legacy or he's just plain after the wealth & people of Ukraine or whatever), or on the rare occasion that they assume irrational intentions, it's dementia or psychosis or something. I believe Putin has an irrational intention of an entirely different sort: He sincerely doesn't perceive Ukraine's independence to be legitimate, and he views its separation from Russia as a wrong that must be righted, and he's so driven by this obsession that every other possible consideration can be reduced to a mere logistical matter. And so when he put his nuclear force on high alert and writers speculated as to what it might mean (is he trying to intimidate the West? is this an elaborate bluff? he wouldn't actually fire a nuke right?), it seemed pretty clear to me what he was thinking: If I can't have her, no one will.. The nukes aren't for us. I very much hope that I'm wrong, because nothing but swift force would stop him in that scenario, and it's clear that the West is unwilling to apply that.

Steve West | March 8, 2022
I fear you may be right. Fiona Hill is certain that he would use the nuclear option.

Chris Lemler | March 9, 2022
Well the US better have a pretty good plan to stopping him. Right now Putin thinks that he is unstoppable.


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