Predict the Oscars 2005

Scott Hardie | February 25, 2004
If you care about it, I'd like your comments on a possible rule change for Predict the Oscars 2005: Instead of a set number of points per category like we've always had, each correct prediction would earn you 1 point for every player who predicted incorrectly in that category. Thus, being right on an easy one like "Finding Nemo" for best animated feature would get you a measly 2 points, while going out on a limb and predicting "Triplets of Belleville" instead (and being right) would get you 27 points. Seems more fair that way, doesn't it? Added advantages would be that players would spread out their predictions a little more instead of converging like herds on a single front-runner, and that the system would reward you for encouraging friends to play, instead of penalizing you.

Scott Hardie | February 25, 2004
Incidentally, I predict at least a half dozen nominations for "The Passion of the Christ."

Anna Gregoline | February 25, 2004
Hmm, I dislike that rule. I like the permutations of picking the smaller films, the ones that people aren't as sure will win, because they've never heard of them, or just don't know.

Jackie Mason | February 26, 2004
[hidden by request]

Matthew Preston | February 26, 2004
I prefer the way it is now.

Erik Bates | February 26, 2004
[hidden by request]

Scott Hardie | February 29, 2004
For now I plan to keep the current scoring system, but it is beginning to reach its capacity. With a clear front-runner in nearly every category, the same players entered the same predictions across the board, and more than one pair of players has already come up with identical sets of predictions. The tiebreaker rule of who-entered-the-contest-first is supposed to be for emergency use only, but it will be required several times this year and probably even more next year. Something must be done about the score system to accomodate more players.

Jackie Mason | February 29, 2004
[hidden by request]

Scott Hardie | February 29, 2004
The original score alternative that I invented, back in 2000 I think, would solve the capacity problem but is too complicated to be practical: Letting players assign points to categories as they saw fit, requiring that each player use exactly 100 points. Even those people who predicted alike would still vary because of how they distributed their points.

Matthew Preston | February 29, 2004
Scott, did you use the term "original score" as a pun?

Anyways, I like the idea of assigning points and a fellow player expressed interest as well during conversation. Consider it for next year. This year, I would haved loved to drop a high number of points in best actress and leave next to nothing in best actor.

Scott Hardie | February 29, 2004
I will. I would have liked to have been able to do the same, but when some people couldn't even find the giant "Enter The Contest" link this year, I don't know if it's the right way to go. I guess I have eleven months to think about it.