Predict the Oscars 2013

Scott Hardie | January 7, 2013
The Oscar season, and our annual contest, will begin in three days. I have reprogrammed the page to be easier to use this year, especially when it comes to revising your choices on the fly if you change your mind often, like I do. :-)

Any predictions as to what the major nominees will be when they're announced on Thursday morning?

I think Lincoln and Argo will dominate the year, especially Daniel-Day Lewis. Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook also have a very good chance of getting lots of nominations. (Here's hoping to see Pi's special effects honored.) Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour are well-loved among those few who saw them, and could do well. There's a smaller chance that The Master, Django Unchained, or Flight could pick up a few odd nominations. I doubt that the big hit movies of the year like The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises will get any recognition beyond the technical categories, although The Hunger Games and The Hobbit have a very good shot at the Best Costume and (recently renamed) Best Makeup and Hairstyling categories. After the epic fail of Cars 2 last year, Pixar should go back to its annual domination of the Animated Feature category with Brave.

Scott Hardie | January 7, 2013
I can halfway see the Academy voting for Parental Guidance in the desperate hope of summoning Billy Crystal to the stage.

Scott Hardie | January 8, 2013
And Les Mis of course. I can't believe I forgot that in my list of the strong contenders for nominations.

It's still very early, and Argo might wind up not nominated for anything in a few days, but for the moment, I think Argo has the edge over Lincoln to win Best Picture. Lincoln is the better film, but it's cold and intellectual and mostly passionless, a film for the mind. Argo doesn't leave much for the audience to figure out on their own, has a great deal more humor, and leaves you feeling happy. It's also very flattering of Hollywood and the "magic of movies," and the Academy eats that stuff up; look at last year's winner. Lincoln leaves you with muddled and conflicted feelings about being American; Argo makes you want to set off Fourth-of-July fireworks and eat some apple pie. Daniel Day-Lewis is a huge favorite for lead actor, but otherwise Lincoln feels like it's at a disadvantage.

Chris Lemler | January 8, 2013
I would think that Ted would be up for a nomination

Scott Hardie | January 8, 2013
Even if it's not, Seth MacFarlane will host the Oscars show, and I'm sure his movie Ted will come up at least once during the evening. Maybe he and Mark Wahlberg can do a little scene in character.

Chris Lemler | January 8, 2013
Yeah like the part where Mark and Ted beat the crap out of each other in the room too funny....lol :)

Samir Mehta | January 8, 2013
[hidden by request]

Scott Hardie | January 8, 2013
Bullish on Django, eh? That could be wise. I thought the Academy didn't care much for QT, resenting his ongoing indulgence of his love for stylish B-movies instead of putting his talent toward more "serious" work that they would feel prouder to endorse, but I could be way off. Samuel L. Jackson has made it clear in interviews that he feels entitled to the Oscar this year (making up for the one that he was "robbed" for in another QT movie years ago), but if anyone is nominated for Django, I don't think it will be him.

If Matthew McConaughey does get a nomination, I would think it would be for Killer Joe, which reportedly (I haven't seen it) demanded even more commitment from him than his surprising part in Bernie. But I doubt that the Academy will forget his decade of lazy coasting in plum roles so easily. Eddie Murphy seemed poised to pull that off with Dreamgirls and got a sharp rebuke. Heh, I wonder if Alan Arkin will be the spoiler yet again this time, winning for Argo.

Jessica Chastain seems just about guaranteed to win for Zero Dark Thirty, and in spirit for the forty-two other good movies she made this year. The Academy does seem to enjoy "stunt" wins by the very old (Emmanuelle Riva in Amour could follow Jessica Tandy and Christopher Plummer) or very young (Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild could follow Tatum O'Neal and Anna Paquin), so we'll see.

Samir Mehta | January 9, 2013
[hidden by request]

Scott Hardie | January 9, 2013
Here's what I read about Samuel L. Jackson. It cherry-picks the potentially controversial statements out of a fairly down-to-earth original interview, but that's what Yahoo does.

I can see your case for Matthew McConaughey. Tom Hanks and Jamie Foxx come to mind as other examples.

Was Silver Linings Playbook seen and liked by enough people? I thought it never quite took off, and that David O. Russell still has quite a few people in Hollywood who can't stand him, but I could be wrong. Personally I like Russell and Jennifer Lawrence, and would welcome the nomination if it happens. Maybe my perception is distorted by some friends who have a vocal dislike of Lawrence and snort laughing at things like this. I would think that Lawrence's participation in a middlebrow YA thriller like The Hunger Games would limit the Academy's respect for her, but being Batman didn't stop Christian Bale for winning an Oscar, and for his role in another Russell movie no less.

Samir Mehta | January 9, 2013
[hidden by request]

Scott Hardie | January 10, 2013
I don't understand some people's dislike of Lawrence either. Hunger Games overexposure/fatigue maybe? She's clearly good. I didn't even like Winter's Bone but I liked her work in it.

The nominations are out! It's mostly as expected. I would say the absence of Best Director nominations for Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow are the most surprising. Argo and Zero Dark Thirty just got weaker in the standings, putting Lincoln in a dominant position. This race is on! Funeratic's contest will begin tonight.

Scott Hardie | January 11, 2013
Our contest has begun! Predict early and predict often. Good luck!

The form is completely rewritten this year. You just click on any movie that you want to predict, and it should record your vote instantly. Click on another movie to change your mind. Since this form is new and more advanced than in the past, there's greater chance of something going wrong, so please let me know if you have any trouble with it.

I'd like to give away a bigger prize, one commensurate with my excitement for the contest, and that might attract more newcomers to the site. But I'm just not in a place to do that right now. Perhaps next year.

Scott Hardie | January 11, 2013
A persuasive case for Silver Linings Playbook to win Best Picture.

Evie Totty | February 23, 2013
Just a quick comment: though DDL is likely the best actor, I remember when everyone was like TOM HANKS TOM HANKS for Castaway... and he didn't get it because it would have been his third and they ... just don't do that. They don't give you 3 in the same category.

If I'm wrong then that's great, I'm glad they decided to get past that stupid bullcrap, but we are talking about the Oscars here...

I'm pulling for SLP for best picture, but I voted for Argo. I might switch to Lincoln prior to the telecast though because voters may have voted for THAT to make up for not giving the Oscar to DDL...

Scott Hardie | February 24, 2013
Daniel Day-Lewis might lose, but he has all of the major pre-Oscar awards, and just seems inevitable. Does the Academy see Bradley Cooper as a serious actor, or just a third-rate Matthew McConaughey coasting on his unexpected Hangover success? ...Wait, it's me who seems him that way, but I like him anyway. :-)

I stand by my comments above about Argo being the more pro-America, pro-Hollywood, feel-good movie than Lincoln and thus having the edge for Best Picture. All of the usual indicators agree, except for Ben Affleck's snub as director, which I think was the result of 1) the Academy having a grudge against Ben Affleck's crappy movies, 2) the Academy having a grudge against actors who become directors (Ron Howard went through the same thing), and 3) the Academy failing to anticipate just how much momentum Argo would pick up during awards season and just how foolish they would look for snubbing Affleck. In other words, I think if they could go back a month, the Academy would have nominated Affleck, and he would be the overwhelming front-runner tonight.

Supporting Actor seems like a three-way toss-up between Christoph Waltz, Robert De Niro, and Tommy Lee Jones. Jones has the most impotant award (SAG) so he's my safe bet, though I may change my mind before 8pm, especially as more and more players predict the other two and I have to consider which prediction gives me the best statistical chance of maintaining a point lead (which isn't the same thing as which actor is going to win the Oscar).

The hardest category for me to predict is Animated Feature, which seems like a 50/50 toss-up between Brave and Wreck-It Ralph. There are plenty of reasons to pick either one.

I'm not picking Skyfall for Cinematography because the risk of falling behind the entire rest of the pack is just too great, but c'mon, it's Roger Deakins! He's the Scorsese of this category: Loved by the voters, but keeps doing good work in years where there's a more attractive competitor, and likely to eventually win for a minor title just because of the overwhelming body of work he's done. Claudio Miranda is no Director Kevin Costner, but still, I think Deakins has a shot.

Steve West | February 25, 2013
I believe I tied a new low by seeing only one film nominated in any category (The Avengers). I've read a lot on the majority of films and in a perfect world I'll eventually see most of them. Best guesses on the Oscars will hopefully get me in the top 5 this year. Good luck and I'm ready for my close-up Mr. Demille!

Scott Hardie | February 25, 2013
I always wondered how quickly the page could adapt if there was a tie in a particular category. When Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty tied for Best Sound Editing, I marked ZDT (0D30?) the winner in my little script, which automatically gave 2 points to everybody who predicted it. Then I manually gave 2 points to each of the players who predicted Skyfall, and altered the page to display Skyfall as if it was also the winner in that category. Everything looks right to me, but please feel free to double-check the math on your score if you have any doubt. Next year, I'll be prepared in advance for the possibility of ties.

Chris Lemler | February 25, 2013
Well this is the first year I have watched the Oscars on tv. It is kinda of exciting to hear the speeches they give and accept the awards

Steve Dunn | February 25, 2013
Nice work, Scott. As soon as I heard about the tie, I immediately wondered how you would handle it. And I had complete faith it would be cool.

Erik Bates | February 25, 2013
[hidden by request]

Chris Lemler | February 25, 2013
I never thought they could tie in the Oscars

Steve West | February 25, 2013
Woohoo!!! Top five baby!!! Go figure.

Evie Totty | February 25, 2013
Grats guys! I felt like I was playing fantasy football again! Glad I was wrong about actor and movie... they might have snubbed Ben but at least they have shown they've grown!

Evie Totty | February 25, 2013
Of course my highlight is Jennifer Lawrence winning for that role. So happy!!

Scott Hardie | February 25, 2013
Good award winners; good contest. Our final scores have been announced. Congrats to our winner Stefanie!