Pathfinder's Path Forward

Scott Hardie | October 12, 2014
I doubt that many people reading this are into tabletop RPGs, even though a whole section of this site is about one, but for anyone who is, here's something I've been wondering: Is Pathfinder doomed by the very thing that made it successful, its rigid refusal to change?

Dungeons & Dragons used to be immensely popular. Maybe 95% of tabletop RPGs played anywhere were D&D. Its first few editions were all hits, peaking with 3.5th. When the publisher came out with the unpopular 4th edition, gamers engineered Pathfinder as a "new" open-source game built on 3.5th edition rules that steadfastly refused to deviate from them. Pathfinder is now the dominant title in the gaming world, comprising maybe 85% of games played anywhere (I'm guessing), with various versions of D&D including the new 5th edition taking up maybe 10%.

New adventure modules are published regularly for Pathfinder; there's a whole aisle just for Pathfinder books at the local gaming shop here. But there will never be a 2nd edition of Pathfinder, or any core rule changes, because by its nature, it refuses to deviate from this popular ruleset, and refuses to try evolving or adapting to a changing marketplace (changes driven primarily by younger players who grew up on electronic games like World of Warcraft and card games like Magic: The Gathering). D&D's newer versions aren't perfect, but with their streamlined rules and online support, they're at least an attempt to stay current with the times we live in.

Pathfinder is made to appeal to people who used to play old versions of D&D and don't want to give that up, not to new players looking for a game to try. Furthermore, it's convoluted and hard to learn. Those seem like high barriers of entry. Is Pathfinder not doomed to eventual failure, as its old players age and give up the hobby and get tired of its flaws that will never go away, and as new gamers opt for something more appealing?