Running Up the Down Escalator to Heaven (RB)

Steve Dunn | July 15, 2009
According to current trends, Scott will win the Stairway to Heaven competition sometime in the mid-27th century AD.

OK, just kidding, actually mid-December.

Except that for structural reasons the wins are likely to become more scarce as play continues (after all, Jason can only be eliminated six times once, folks), so I think it will be a miracle if the competition ends in 2009 and I can easily see it extending past May 2010 or beyond.

Part of me thinks this is too long, but another part of me LOVES it. Overall I'm undecided.

Amy Austin | July 15, 2009
LOL... what you said!

Scott Hardie | July 15, 2009
I'm working on changes both to the tournament structure to accelerate the process, and to the code so that it doesn't keep reporting that Jason has been eliminated. I've been busy on another project. Info coming soon.

Scott Hardie | July 17, 2009
I'm still working on the first part, but the second part is done: The phrasing of the tournament rules now clarifies what happens when someone reaches step 0, and each person is only reported eliminated once. More to come.

Steve Dunn | July 23, 2009
Any way to track how many wins are by forfeit?

I know I've had at least two or three, with another possibly coming soon. I see that Russ currently has two concerts with Dennis - that'll be a sweet payday.

I'm curious what the standings would look like if we deleted the forfeits. I assume everyone over 10 would bump down a bit.

Scott, did you implement a change regarding the frequency of Psychedelia and Decades? Ever since I bitched about it a few weeks ago, I don't think I've had a single concert with either rule. Maybe it's just the site Randomizer Gods messing with my brain? (They tend to do that - I know they do!)

Scott Hardie | July 31, 2009
Time for a change of plans. For the last few weeks, I had intended to institute "phase 1" of my tournament-acceleration plan, since the scores were progressing too slowly. That called for all concerts to have Overtime so that draws were impossible. I planned to make it retroactive to the beginning of the tournament, so that any concerts that already ended in a draw would suddenly get a continuance – thus, I figured, what's the rush? But retroactively continuing the old concerts has turned out to be much more time-consuming than I thought it would be, so I instead I'm just applying it to concerts going forward. I have also instituted "phase 2," which is one new concert every hour instead of a handful of concerts at midnight, also only going forward instead of retroactive. Let's see how quickly this changes things.

I did implement a change that made Psychedelia and Decades come up less often. All rules are still possible, just coming up with less frequency.

Beneficiaries of forfeit victories to date:
5: Matthew, Steve Dunn
3: Amy, Lori, Russ
2: Aaron, Anthony, Dave, James, Justin, Richard
1: Chris, Dennis, Elaine, Jeremiah, Joanna, Marlon, Ryan, Samir, Sarah, Scott, Steve West, Tony

I think it's clear why we need to count forfeits as victories, but it's interesting to know all the same.

Steve Dunn | July 31, 2009
I am the forfeit king!! As I always say, I would much rather be lucky than good.

Thanks for all your efforts, Scott. The tournament is a lot of fun. I especially like that it forces concerts with different rules and different players. I can't wait to see how the new system shakes things up.

Steve Dunn | August 1, 2009
How does overtime work?

Scott Hardie | August 1, 2009
Thanks for the thanks. This tournament is kind of what you wanted, right? Random concerts bringing together players and rules who wouldn't mix otherwise?

It's best to discover Overtime's mechanics yourself as they happen. It's a good rule. Despite being such a useful rule to many players, it's hidden rather far down the list of achievements to make it a reward for getting that far.

Aaron Shurtleff | August 4, 2009
Hmm.. Had a depressing thought. What happens if everyone just pretty much tanks, and we're left with a situation where there's only two people who haven't been eliminated? Can you win by default if you outlast everyone else?? :(

Scott Hardie | August 4, 2009
Good question, but it isn't possible. Every step loss for one player is a step gain for someone else. Even if a weak player is defeated by a moderate player who will eventually be defeated by strong player, the step gains made by the moderate player in the process will eventually be turned over to the strong player. If some players fall, then inevitably other players will rise.

What is possible is stagnation, where everyone experiences a roughly even number of wins and losses and the scores don't change much, which is what I hope to shake up a bit more with the recent changes. I'm pleased with the results so far (even if I find my own tournament performance slipping) and I hope you are too.

Aaron Shurtleff | August 7, 2009
OK, I've had 7 matches with Devil in a row, and I lose 9-1 every time (and I'm half amazed he doesn't take the unplayed card, too!). My only hope to not get ejected is to actually win some of these matches.

That said, I should be eliminated by September (and that's being generous!). Good luck to you all!! :D

Amy Austin | August 7, 2009
Shut up... you're still doing better than I am!

Steve Dunn | August 9, 2009
I have never beaten Devil. I don't know how many times I've tried, but it's a lot. Immensely frustrating.

Aaron Shurtleff | August 10, 2009
Boy, I wish I was at Step 25 and had the luxury of having never beat Devil... :P

Steve Dunn | August 10, 2009
Yeah, but I've periodically tried to beat Devil ever since I started playing RB, long before this tournament! To the point I've begun to wonder if I was doing something wrong. Is it any more complicated than just playing and playing and playing and eventually you randomly get a win? If there's a trick to it, I'm definitely clueless.

Matthew Preston | August 10, 2009
I'm guessing that devil was easier to beat in the beginning of the game. It's been explained to me (and I hope I'm not giving anything away) that what makes devil so hard is that he can use all of the play rules, but you can't. There is some strategy that comes into play when you know that, but not much. At the beginning of the game, there were less play rules, thus less opportunity for devil to beat you.

Of course this theory doesn't hold true with Steve's unfortunate string of bad luck since early on...

Scott Hardie | August 10, 2009
It also gets much harder to beat him when you're a veteran player and have lots of high-ranked cards. When you bring R3s and R2s, he's not so unstoppable. But it's possible for anyone to beat him, even with all R5s, so hang in there, Steve.

Justin Woods | August 11, 2009
if you want the best advice, I have bet him all four times by just hitting the submit button over and over don't change the location of your move. hope that helps...

Tony Peters | August 11, 2009
damn I am one loss from being eliminated.........

Amy Austin | August 11, 2009
Lol... I always wondered if anyone had tried that particular "strategy". Up until this tournament, I had a win ratio of one in eleven -- three out of thirty-three games -- which I pretty much figured was a statistic to be rather proud of... so I left it at that. I've since played him 111 more times, for which I've gained only one more win. I always play what I would call strategically, too, but it seems there hasn't been much payoff for that. ;-p